Backtest: Buy FANG at the close when its 10-day total return beats SPY by more than 3 p...
The premise of this signal was almost elegant: if an E&P like FANG can outrun the broad market while crude itself sits below its 50-day trend line, then the tape is rewarding execution and free cash flow over commodity beta. That momentum gap, the theory goes, should keep giving. In this backtest, it did not. The strategy lost 31.44% on $100,000 across 21 closed trades, while plain SPY buy-and-hold over the same window rose 76.34% — a shortfall of nearly 108 points.
The question was whether relative equity strength against a soft crude tape could persist as a tradable signal. The numbers here say otherwise. The full study lays out the exact entry and exit rules and the trade-by-trade evidence, charts included, for anyone who wants to see precisely where the logic broke down.
Buy FANG at the close when its 10-day total return beats SPY by more than 3 percentage points while Brent crude closes below its 50-day simple moving average; exit after 10 trading days or when FANG closes below its 5-day simple moving average, whichever comes first. A large-cap E&P showing broad-market strength against a soft crude tape is being re-rated for execution and free cash flow rather than commodity beta, so the momentum gap tends to persist.
How this was measured
This is a simulated backtest generated from the plain-English strategy below, executed bar-by-bar on historical market data using the price + news data mode with $100,000 starting capital. Strategy: Buy FANG at the close when its 10-day total return beats SPY by more than 3 percentage points while Brent crude closes below its 50-day simple moving average; exit after 10 trading days or when FANG closes below its 5-day simple moving average, whichever comes first. A large-cap E&P showing broad-market strength against a soft crude tape is being re-rated for execution and free cash flow rather than commodity beta, so the momentum gap tends to persist.
The key numbers
The charts
The takeaway
The strategy returned -31.44% on $100,000 starting capital across 21 closed trades with a 29% win rate. Over the same window SPY buy-and-hold returned +76.34%, so the strategy finished trailing the benchmark by 107.78 points. Best single trade +8.72%, worst -12.90%.
The fine print
- Simulated results on historical data — fills, slippage and costs are idealized.
- Past performance does not predict future results.