Backtest: Buy PSX at the close when it closes below its 20-day simple moving average wh...
A 55% win rate can still lose you nearly 29 cents on the dollar. That is the headline from this test of a refiner pullback strategy on PSX. The rule was straightforward: buy when PSX closes below its 20-day moving average while the 20-day sits above the 50-day and Brent holds above its own 50-day—the thesis being that such dips are product-margin wobbles, not fundamental breaks. Exit on a close back above the 20-day or after eight sessions.
The backtest closed 20 trades and returned -28.76% on $100,000, while SPY buy-and-hold gained 76.34% over the same span. One losing trade alone cost -21.71%, more than wiping out the edge from the 55% winners. The full evidence—methodology, equity curve, and trade-by-trade breakdown—is in the analysis below.
Buy PSX at the close when it closes below its 20-day simple moving average while its 20-day simple moving average is above its 50-day simple moving average and Brent crude closes above its 50-day simple moving average; exit when PSX closes above its 20-day simple moving average or after 8 trading days, whichever comes first. A refiner pullback within an uptrend while the crude tape is firm is usually a product-margin wobble, not a fundamental break, so the dip gets bought as crack spreads stabilize.
How this was measured
This is a simulated backtest generated from the plain-English strategy below, executed bar-by-bar on historical market data using the price + news data mode with $100,000 starting capital. Strategy: Buy PSX at the close when it closes below its 20-day simple moving average while its 20-day simple moving average is above its 50-day simple moving average and Brent crude closes above its 50-day simple moving average; exit when PSX closes above its 20-day simple moving average or after 8 trading days, whichever comes first. A refiner pullback within an uptrend while the crude tape is firm is usually a product-margin wobble, not a fundamental break, so the dip gets bought as crack spreads stabilize.
The key numbers
The charts
The takeaway
The strategy returned -28.76% on $100,000 starting capital across 20 closed trades with a 55% win rate. Over the same window SPY buy-and-hold returned +76.34%, so the strategy finished trailing the benchmark by 105.10 points. Best single trade +5.33%, worst -21.71%.
The fine print
- Simulated results on historical data — fills, slippage and costs are idealized.
- Past performance does not predict future results.