PLTR daily return asymmetry and skew over the last ~3 years
PLTR’s daily returns over the last ~three years break the usual “stairs up, elevator down” narrative: the distribution is positively skewed, and the largest single-session moves have tended to be upside explosions rather than crashes. That asymmetric tail shows up clearly in the computed Fisher–Pearson skew of about +0.42.
This study resampled minute bars into close-to-close daily returns and examined 751 trading days to quantify that shape, plus rolling skew, extreme-move counts and the size of the biggest sessions. The detailed charts and statistics below show how a handful of strong earnings and squeeze days drive the skew and how consistent the small daily edge has been — the full evidence and methodology are presented in the report that follows.
For PLTR over the past ~3 years, does the market's 'stairs up, elevator down' asymmetry hold — are its largest single-day moves the losses, giving the return distribution a negative skew — or do explosive up-days dominate and flip it positive? Thesis: PLTR's daily returns are positively skewed, with its biggest single-session moves landing on the upside, inverting the negative skew typical of the broad market because momentum darlings melt up on earnings and squeezes rather than crash.
How this was measured
Resampled PLTR minute bars to daily closes, computed close-to-close daily returns within the last three years anchored to the latest available date, and summarized distribution shape (mean, median, std, Fisher–Pearson skewness). Identified the largest up and down days, counted extreme-move days at 3%/5%/10% thresholds by sign, and computed a 60-day rolling skewness to visualize time variation. Results describe distributional asymmetry; no trading signals are generated.
The key numbers
Reading the numbers
Across 751 trading days PLTR shows a clear positive skew (skewness 0.4197) with a small positive mean daily return (~0.35%) and 53.8% positive days; the largest up-day (+24.51%) is bigger than the largest down-day (−15.08%).
The charts
The histogram centers just above zero (mean ~0.35%) but the right tail stretches much farther: the largest up-day is +24.51% while the largest down-day is −15.08%. The bulk of days cluster near small gains/losses, so what to watch is the long right-hand tail — those rare, very large up-days pull the mean to the positive side and create the asymmetry your thesis expects.
When we count extreme sessions by size, up-days outnumber down-days at every threshold: >=3% has 141 up vs 120 down, >=5% has 72 vs 52, and >=10% has 12 vs 9. That consistent excess of large up-days over large down-days directly supports the idea that the stock’s biggest single-session moves tend to be upward rather than downward.
The 60-day rolling skewness averages positive (mean 0.2187) but swings widely: it starts slightly negative (−0.0494), ends slightly negative (−0.0426), and ranges from −1.2538 to 1.9091. In plain terms, skew flips over time but more often sits on the positive side and has episodic spikes well above zero — consistent with periodic clusters of explosive up-days rather than persistent heavy left tails.
Top 10 absolute single-day moves (PLTR, ~3y)
| date | return | direction |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-03 | 0.2451 | Up |
| 2025-04-09 | 0.2148 | Up |
| 2023-11-02 | 0.1654 | Up |
| 2025-03-10 | -0.1508 | Down |
| 2025-02-19 | -0.1491 | Down |
| 2024-08-08 | 0.1402 | Up |
| 2024-02-05 | 0.1375 | Up |
| 2023-07-28 | 0.135 | Up |
| 2025-04-04 | -0.1344 | Down |
| 2025-02-24 | -0.1243 | Down |
Return quantiles (PLTR, ~3y)
| quantile | return |
|---|---|
| 1% | -0.101 |
| 5% | -0.0564 |
| 50% (median) | 0.0035 |
| 95% | 0.0725 |
| 99% | 0.1118 |
The takeaway
Yes — over the last ~3 years PLTR’s daily-return distribution leans positive: the Fisher–Pearson skew is +0.42, so the biggest single-session moves have been more often and larger to the upside. The data show this concretely: the largest up-day was +24.51% (2025-02-03) versus the largest down-day −15.08% (2025-03-10), there were 72 days up ≥5% versus 52 days down ≥5%, and the 95th/99th return quantiles are +7.25% and +11.18% respectively. PLTR also had a slight daily return edge (mean ≈ +0.35% and 53.8% of days positive), and the top-10 absolute moves are dominated by up-days (the three largest moves were all up). This is a real, measurable lean toward upside extremes—not a pure coin flip—because we have 751 trading days and a clear positive skew, but it’s not ironclad proof. Practical takeaway: your thesis is supported — PLTR’s recent behavior shows upside-explosion dominance over this window, but expect that a handful of big earnings/squeeze days are doing a lot of the work.
The fine print
- Returns are close-to-close: overnight gaps and earnings timing are included; intraday path is not.
- Skewness is driven by a handful of tail events; a few earnings/squeeze days can dominate the estimate.
- This is strictly the ~3-year window (751 trading days); longer or different windows may show different asymmetry.
- Counts of ‘extreme’ up/down days depend on the chosen thresholds (3%/5%/10% change the balance materially).